International Desk, Bangladesh Global: Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly reshaping the global economy, with the potential to significantly boost trade and growth worldwide, according to the World Trade Organization's (WTO) World Trade Report 2025 released on Wednesday. WTO simulations indicate that by 2040, global trade could rise by 34 to 37 percent, while global GDP may increase by 12 to 13 percent. The strongest growth is expected in digitally deliverable services, including AI services, which could see trade expand by as much as 42 percent.
Trade also plays a key role in enabling AI development by allowing countries to access essential inputs and services. Currently, AI-related production and services are concentrated in China, select EU economies and the US. China and the US are the largest importers of key AI-enabling components, while East Asia, led by China, dominates exports.
Ensuring equitable access to AI is crucial. The WTO projects that with more equal distribution of technology and infrastructure, income growth could reach up to 15 percent for low-income economies by 2040, compared to only 8 percent without technological catch-up.
The WTO warns that without inclusive policies, international coordination and investment, AI risks exacerbating the global digital divide. Domestic policies governing tariffs, export controls, and data will be pivotal in ensuring that AI fosters inclusive and sustainable growth rather than widening inequalities.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized the potential of AI to drive inclusive growth: "With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies."
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